Key Asian destinations set to lead Chinese outbound travel surge over Lunar New Year
Data from travel analyst ForwardKeys reveals a +48% year-on-year increase in outbound travel from China to other Asian destinations between mid-January and mid-February, and the gap with 2019 levels closing.
CHINA. Data from travel analyst ForwardKeys forecasts a sharp rise in Chinese outbound travel over Lunar New Year compared to 2024, with the gap narrowing versus pre-pandemic levels.
The eight-day holiday from 28 January to 4 February has prompted a surge in bookings, with peaks recorded on 18 and 25 January as many travellers make their journeys in advance of the festivities.
From 13 January to 16 February, ForwardKeys has revealed a +48% year-on-year increase in outbound travel from China to other Asian destinations, closing the gap with 2019 levels to just -8%.
“The longer holiday period for CNY 2025, part of a government initiative to stimulate tourism and cultural exchange, is clearly having a positive impact on travel patterns,” commented ForwardKeys Market Analyst (China) Nancy Dai.
“We’re seeing a clear trend of travellers departing earlier than the official holiday starts to avoid the rush, with another peak expected on 30 January, most likely driven by those seeking short-haul getaways after spending the first days of the holiday at home or with family.”
ForwardKeys analysis highlights visa-free destinations Malaysia, Singapore and the UAE as standout performers, with growth of +41%, +26%, and +14% respectively compared to their performance in 2019.
The depreciation of the Yen has made Japan an attractive option for Chinese travellers, resulting in a +104% increase compared to 2024 — +20% higher than 2019.
Chinese travel to Russia is up +30% from 2024 and +39% above pre-pandemic levels in the holiday period, driven by the rising popularity of winter destinations, eased visa restrictions and increased flight capacity.
As Chinese travellers embrace more long-haul options, Europe is seeing substantial growth over 2024 for France (+35%), the UK (+32%), Spain (+32%), Italy (+24% ) and Germany (+20%).
Increased seat capacity from China to Canada (+165%) and the USA (+42%) compared to 2024 has made North America more accessible to Chinese travellers this year, resulting in an uplift in visitors.
The data shows an increase in solo travellers (+8% over 2019) and couples (+6%) for regional travel, reflecting a growing preference among Chinese travellers for more independent travel experiences, said ForwardKeys.
Larger group travel (six or more) is significantly down on 2019 (-44% for regional travel, -52% for long-haul) suggesting that organised tours “are less relevant to today’s Chinese travellers”, according to the analyst. 
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The title is designed to aid brands, retailers and businesses in making strategic, data-driven decisions that shape the future of their respective travel retail businesses.
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