“Superman” Tracking For $90-125M+ Start

While there had been some very rosy early projections going as high as $175 million, James Gunn’s”Superman” finally arrived on proper pre-release tracking services today and the numbers are a little more concerning.

Deadline reports that NRG has the film set to open in the $125-145 million range domestically in its first weekend. However multiple distributors tell them the result is looking more likely to be $90-125 million – about on par with Zack Snyder’s “Man of Steel”.

The issue here isn’t awareness. In moviegoers polled, it seems many know a new “Superman” film is coming, with the title scoring a 30 in unaided awareness. That’s higher than “Top Gun: Maverick”.

The problem is translating that awareness into ticket sales and getting people out to the cinema. In terms of the film being a ‘first choice’, the title is reportedly currently tracking below Marvel films like “Captain America: Brave New World” and “Thor: Love & Thunder” at the same point in time.

Part of that is potentially due to the marketing with the majority of Superman‘s P&A spend not happening until the final days before opening. Another part is with such awareness of the project, people are likely to hold off until seeing reactions and reviews before making a judgement to see the film.

“Superman” opens in cinemas on July 11th.

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