With ‘Ballerina,’ Lionsgate Tests the Limits of John Wick’s Box Office Power

As the “John Wick” series enters its second decade, Lionsgate has made it clear that the Baba Yaga and his world of assassins are a big part of their theatrical future. We will get answers on how big its reach could be starting this weekend with “Ballerina,” a spinoff starring Ana de Armas as a new vengeance-seeking killer.

“From the World of John Wick: Ballerina” got its start as a BlackList script written by Shay Hatten after being inspired by watching “John Wick: Chapter 2,” which Lionsgate enjoyed so much that they picked it up in 2017 and called on Hatten to rewrite his script to fit into the “Wick” universe known as The Continental.

Now it is part of a flurry of new “Wick” IP coming from Lionsgate in the years ahead. Along with “Ballerina,” Lionsgate is developing “John Wick 5,” a new mainline sequel that will bring back Keanu Reeves as Wick despite his apparent death in the last installment released in 2023. An animated prequel is also in development as well as an upcoming video game, while an immersive experience set in The Continental has opened in Las Vegas.

So how much appetite do moviegoers have for more “Wick”? Given that Reeves only has a cameo in “Ballerina” — a heavily marketed cameo, but a cameo nonetheless — it would be too much to expect de Armas to lead the film to the $175 million-plus domestic runs of the third and fourth “Wick” films, the latter earning a franchise-best $73.8 million opening two years ago.

Instead, “Ballerina” is looking at a more modest $30 million launch, with projections topping out at $34 million. As with past installments, Lionsgate is co-producing the movie with 87North and Thunder Road Entertainment, with a budget reported to be at $80 million due to extensive reshoots.

Reception for “Ballerina,” while not as strong as the “Wick” films, is still positive with a Rotten Tomatoes score of 75% that give particular praise to the action sequences that maintain the franchise’s standard of bloody excellence while allowing de Armas to do things her own way.

In some respects, “Ballerina” is an experiment for Lionsgate similar to the one that Paramount performed last year with “A Quiet Place: Part One,” another spinoff that follows different characters in a franchise’s setting. That film’s domestic run was below the $188 million total of the first “Quiet Place,” but was still a solid success with $139 million domestic and $261 million worldwide against a $67 million budget.

Lionsgate previously tried to expand the “Wick” universe with the Peacock spinoff miniseries “The Continental,” but the show received mixed reviews. Since then, Lionsgate has given Stahelski full creative control over its “Wick” expansion, serving as producer of “Ballerina” and directing reshoots for the film, filling in for Len Wiseman who could not return to the production due to health issues.

We will see in the weeks ahead how much Stahelski’s guidance could help the audience word-of-mouth for “Ballerina,” and how much of the general audience’s interest in “John Wick” comes from the world it has built over the past decade, even when its titular assassin isn’t in the spotlight.

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