Shoory: The future of Chinese outbound travel definitely looks promising

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Tourism Economics’ head of tourism analysis in the Asia Pacific Michael Shoory opines that China’s outbound travel sector is set to grow significantly beyond the current decade.

Speaking at the recently concluded ITB China 2025, Shoory declared that the global travel sector is entering a growth phase, though it will still be subject to both risks and uncertainty.

Against this background, the Chinese outbound travel sector will continue its post-pandemic recovery, albeit at a much slower pace; indeed, as of 2024, China’s outbound traveller figures are still 25 percent under the total last seen in 2019.

Consequently, the growth of China’s outbound travel sector stands to have significant impact on global tourism as a whole, given how the country is the largest source market for many nations.

Per Tourism Economics’ most recent reports, Chinese travellers in general accounted for 24 percent of those visiting Asia Pacific destinations in 2019, as well as seven percent of the global outbound traveller population.

Excluding those from the special autonomous regions of Hong Kong and Macau, mainlanders made up 18 percent of those travelling into APAC and five percent of those travelling globally.

Factors that could influence Chinese outbound travel

Moving forward, Shoory cited several key factors that will influence the growth of China’s outbound travel sector from now till the end of the current decade and beyond.

On the economic side, the impact of the current US tariffs as well as shifting bilateral trade and tourism policies is already driving Chinese tourists to consider options beyond that particular market, with a rising number making their way to the Middle East and North Africa, though both Southeast Asia and Europe remain popular for their respective range of destinations.

Indeed, based on recent interviews we conducted at ITB China, the number of Chinese travellers to the Middle East and North Africa has grown significantly over the past few years, and measures such as an increased number of direct flights to the region, MICE, retail travel, and sports tourism are drawing even greater numbers.

The continuing rise of the Chinese middle class is also seen as a potential game-changer, seeing how those who previously only travelled domestically now find themselves with enough funds with which to explore the world.

Also, global peace and order in light of ongoing conflicts in several parts of the world are a primary consideration that many take into account whilst planning their trips.

All these considered, Shoory believes: “China’s outbound travel sector will outpace everyone else’s by the end of the decade. By 2030, China will get a larger share of the global market, possibly going on equal footing with India, or even surpassing them in numbers.”

Where the Chinese have gone, and where are they going

It is interesting to note that APAC destinations are still receiving Chinese tourists in droves, with Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and Malaysia on top as their favoured destinations in the region.

While inbound totals have dwindled for Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore in the past year, Chinese travellers are still making their way to those three Southeast Asian nations in significant numbers.

By next year, however, Shoory’s report forecasts that Chinese travellers will opt to go to Vietnam, Taiwan, Cambodia, India, the Philippines, and Laos as their APAC targets, as well as Germany and the United Kingdom as their western destinations of choice.

Nevertheless, Shoory pointed out that the Middle East will be the area to watch as greater numbers of Chinese tourists make their way over to locations like Dubai and Doha, and the upcoming implementation of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)’s Grand Tours Visa will also have a role to play in boosting totals by 2027.

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